14 Dec 2009
Nouriel Roubini: Asia Must Brace for Difficult Start to 2010
US Economist Interviewed Ahead of Hong Kong’s Asian Financial Forum
14 December 2009 – Asian markets can expect a rough start to 2010 as low interest rates push down the value of the US dollar and create asset bubbles, particularly in emerging markets, according to the New York-based economist, Professor Nouriel Roubini.
In an interview with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), Prof Roubini said the trend is likely to continue for another six to 12 months, with near-zero interest rates prompting global investors to take short positions on the US dollar and long on relatively risky assets.
“Asian, Latin American and emerging markets will have to close their short dollar position, and dump their leverage long positions in the assets,” said Prof Roubini. “And that would lead to a very classic, dramatic snap back of the dollar, and also sharp correction of asset prices in Asia and in other emerging market economies. But it’s not going to happen anytime soon.”
Prof Roubini was interviewed in New York ahead of his speaking appearance at the upcoming Asian Financial Forum (AFF). Themed “Asia in the New Economic Order,” the event will be held 20-21 January 2010 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. It is organised by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and the HKTDC.
Global investment opportunities, regional infrastructure issues and energy and natural resources concerns will also find the spotlight in January. In addition to Prof Roubini, other major speakers include Dominique Strauss-Kahn, International Monetary Fund Managing Director; Gerald Corrigan, former President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Managing Director, Goldman Sachs; and Richard Sandor, Chairman and Founder of the Chicago Climate Exchange.
The complete interview with Prof Roubini can be viewed on the HKTDC webcast service available at: http://www.youtube.com/hktdc
The HKTDC has also released a recent webcast interview with another AFF 2010 speaker: Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Chairman Stephen Roach, where he suggests that the Chinese economy could grow at a slower pace of around 7 per cent and 8.5 per cent in 2010 due to thin export trade demand. This interview is also available at: http://www.youtube.com/hktdc
Please contact the HKTDC's Corporate Communication Department:
Tel: (852) 2584 4216
About the Asian Financial Forum 2010
The Asian Financial Forum (AFF) gathers some of the world's most influential economic experts and most dynamic business leaders for groundbreaking discussions about the opportunities and challenges now facing Asia. AFF offers bankers, institutional investors, fund managers, business leaders, senior executives of high-growth corporations and other key financial players a place to build new contacts and gather the latest intelligence, as well as explore business opportunities with a focus on China and the rest of Asia. Visit http://www.asianfinancialforum.com for more information about AFF 2010.
About the HKTDC
Established in 1966, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is the international marketing arm for Hong Kong-based traders, manufacturers and service providers. With more than 40 offices worldwide, including 11 in the Chinese mainland, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a platform for doing business with China and Asia. The HKTDC also organises trade fairs and business missions to connect companies with opportunities in Hong Kong and the mainland, while providing information via trade publications, research reports and online. For more information, www.hktdc.com