HK Economy- Highlight
20 June 2018
Hong Kong’s export growth momentum was maintained into the opening months of 2018, with the HKTDC Export Index then jumping into expansionary territory in 2Q/2018. While the world’s economic fundamentals may warrant a more optimistic outlook and faster growth for 2018, the looming Sino-US trade war poses a major threat and could significantly reduce the pace of growth if punitive trade measures are eventually adopted by both sides.
The HKTDC Export Index jumped into expansionary territory for 2Q18, indicating that Hong Kong’s exports are set to sustain their current growth momentum over the near term. With 2Q18 returning an overall figure of 54.1, not only was it a significant improvement over the 49.4 recorded for 1Q18, it also saw the Index hit its highest level since 1Q11, some 29 quarters back.
Over the past 20 years, while Hong Kong and Singapore have both demonstrated particular economic strengths, there has been a considerable gap in their comparative growth rates. The differences in the two cities’ growth rates is largely due to increasing population levels. While Singapore has a lower overall population level than Hong Kong, its labour force participation rate is higher.